Climate and environment: learning from the recent past to predict the future

Our climate and environment are currently experiencing very strong anthropogenic pressures. Earth System models (digital twins) predict serious consequences for the future, but their long-term predictions are still burdened by considerable uncertainties and are often contradictory, especially regarding climate extremes. In addition, it is still almost impossible to predict whether or not the next season, the next year or the next decade will be especially anomalous. This inability has repercussion on civil protection, on expected production of renewable energy and hinders society to adapt to climate change. Artificial Intelligence can be applied here to improve the capabilities of Earth System models, or to replace them entirely, to predict future frequencies of climate extremes events. For this goal, we need to analyse past extremes, investigate their drivers and understand their long-term trends. Artificial intelligence methods are based on the identification of past patterns of co-variations and require large data sets, ideally comprising many long periods and variables. For this purpose, we use and create long meteorological reanalysis, spanning the last centuries, using Earth System models and as much available observations and indirect observations (proxy data) as possible. These data sets inform us that the last centuries witnessed not only very strong meteorological extremes (heat waves, floodings, very cold years, wind storms, forest fires, etc. ) and also oceanic extremes (ocean heat waves, coastal upwelling) that also had an economic impact. As today, those extremes appeared to the unprepared society as sudden, unexplained hazards. Our current research aims at providing society with useful predictions of the probabilities of those extremes and climate variations, so that society can adapt in time.

Projects

NECO Natural hazards and response of the marine ecosystem - causal relationship and predictability. BMBF project (2023-2026)

Climate Intelligence (CLINT). European project on the prediction, causality and impacts of extreme climate events through Artifical Intelligence (2022-2025).

Contemporary Regional & Global Sea Level Rise: Assessment of Satellite, in-situ Observations and Climate Models. Working group funded by the International Space Science Institute

Reduced Complexity models, within the Helmholtz-Incubator Information & Data Science program.

Asia-Floods:Extreme sea-level events along South-East Asian coast: past, present and future, funded by the German Science Foundation within the Program Sea Level.

Palmod - Form the last interglacial to the anthropocene: modelling a complete glacial cycle, funded by BMBF, start September 2015.

Annually resolved archives of marine climate change, ARAMACC, funded by EU, start September 2013.

Influence of large-scale climate variability on upwelling regimes off the Namibian coast:implications for past and future climates. Sub-project in GENUS-II Geochemistry and Ecology of the Namibian Upwelling System), funded by BMBF, start May 2012

Climate signals in coastal deposits. Subproject in REKLIM. Funded by the Helmholz Society, Start January 2012.

Neue statistische Verfahren für amplitudenoptimierte Paläeoklimarekonstruktionen aus zeitlich hochaufgelösten verrauschten Proxydaten, funded by the DFG, start October 2011.

Precipitation in the past millennia in Europe -Extension back to Roman times(PRIME-II, funded by the German Science Foundation, start end 2011).

The future climate of the Hamburg region under the assumption of a global temperature increase of two Kelvin (Hamburg 2K, funded by the DFG within the cluster of excellence CLISAP "Integrated Climate System Analysis and Prediction")

Precipitation in the past millennium in Europe (PRIME,funded by the German Science Foundation, start September 2009).

Advanced modeling tool for scenarios of the Baltic Sea ECOsystem to SUPPORT decision making (ECOSUPPORT, funded by the EU-BMBF, s tart January 2009).

Plussee long-term data acquisition and analysis (PLUSDATA, funded by the DFG within the cluster of excellence CLISAP "Integrated Climate System Analysis and Prediction").

European Climate of the last millennium (MILLENNIUM European Climate, funded by the EU).

Relationships between Baltic Sea level variations and periods of rapid climate change in the Holocene as analogues for future cha nges (SINCOS-2, funded by the DFG).

Integrated Baltic Sea Environmental Study (IBSEN, funded by the BMBF/DEKLIM).

Coral climate history of the subtropical North Atlantic - High resolution proxy records from Bermuda (CORCLIM, funded by the BMBF /DEKLIM).

Simulations, Observations and Palaeodata -climate variability over the last 500 years (SO&P, funded by the EU).

Sinking coasts -Climate related sea-level variations in the Baltic Sea in the last few thousand years (SINCOS, funded by the DFG).

Climate Change at the end of the Eemian warm period (EEM, funded by the BMBF/DEKLIM).

Regional Atmospheric Models in the Simulation of Hydrological Extremes (RAMSHES, funded by the CICYT, Spain).

Frequency and intensity of heavy precipitations in Mediterranean Spain within a modified climate (FIRME, funded by the CICYT, Spain).

Natural climate variability in historical times (KIHZ, funded by the Helmholtz Society).

Publications

von Storch H. , Claussen M., Heimann M., Sausen R., Zorita E. Climate Science Concepts Born in Hamburg. Springer Cham (2025)

Bellinghausen, K., Hünicke, B., and Zorita, E. Using random forests to forecast daily extreme sea level occurrences at the Baltic Coast. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1139–1162 ( 2025),

Pérez-Aracil J., , Marina C.M., Zorita E., Barriopedro D., Zaninelli P., Giuliani M., Castelletti A., Gutiérrez P.A., Salcedo-Sanz S. Autoencoder-based flow-analogue probabilistic reconstruction of heat waves from pressure fields . Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences (2024)

D’Olivo, J.P., Zinke, J., Goyal, R., England, M.H., Purich, A., Corrège, T., Zorita, E., Scholz, D., Weber, M. and Carriquiry, J.D. Coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction from Fiji extending to~ 1370 CE reveals insights into the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Science Advances, 10(33), p.eado5107 (2024).

Marlene Klockmann M., von Toussaint U., and Zorita E. Towards variance-conserving reconstructions of climate indices with Gaussian process regression in an embedding space. Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1765–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1765-2024 (2024).

Zorita E, Hünicke B., Tim N., Rouault M. Past Climate Variability in the Last Millennium. In 'Sustainability of Southern African Ecosystems under Global Change', Edited by Springer Verlag, Pages 133-147 (2024).

Rouault M., Dieppois B., Tim N., Hünicke B., Zorita E..Southern Africa Climate Over the Recent Decades: Description, Variability and Trends, in 'Sustainability of Southern African Ecosystems under Global Change', Edited by Springer Verlag, Pages 133-147 (2023) Pages 149-168 (2024).

Biastoch, A., Rühs, S., Ivanciu, I., Schwarzkopf, F.U., Veitch, J., Reason, C., Zorita, E., Tim, N., Hünicke, B., Vafeidis, A.T., Santamaria-Aguilar, S., Kupfer, S., & Soltau, F. The Agulhas Current System as an Important Driver for Oceanic and Terrestrial Climate. In: von Maltitz, G.P., Midgley, G.F., Veitch, J., Brümmer, C., Rötter, R.P., Viehberg, F.A., & Veste, M. (eds.): Sustainability of Southern African Ecosystems under Global Change. Ecological Studies, vol 248, Springer, Cham., doi:10.1007/978-3-031-10948-5_8 (2024).

Tim N., Zorita E., Hünicke B., and Ivanciu I.The impact of the Agulhas Current system on precipitation in southern Africa in regional climate simulations covering the recent past and future.Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 381–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-381-2023, (2023).

Seim A., Zorita E. and Lawrence-Mathers A. The medieval Moon unveils volcanic secrets. Nature 616, 38-40, doi:10.1038/d41586-023-00850-3 (2023).

Zhang Z., Wagner S., Klockmann M., and Zorita E. Evaluation of statistical climate reconstruction methods based on pseudoproxy experiments using linear and machine-learning methods. Clim. Past, 18, 2643–2668, doi: 10.5194/cp-18-2643-2022 (2022).

Wahl, E.R., Zorita E., Diaz, H.F. and Andrew Hoell A.Southwestern United States drought of the 21st century presages drier conditions into the future. Comm. Earth and Environment,10.1038/s43247-022-00532-4 (2022)

Wahl, E., Zorita, E., ND Hoell, A. The Kalman Filter as Post-Processor for Analog Data-Model Assimilation in Paleoclimate Reconstruction. Journal of Climate, 1-55, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0454.1(2022).

Carvalho Oliveira, J., Borchert, L., Zorita, E., and Baehr, J. Self-Organizing Maps identify windows of opportunity for seasonal European summer predictions. Frontiers in Climate, 30 doi:0.3389/fclim.2022.844634 (2022)

Weisse, Ralf, et al. Sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea region Earth System Dynamics 12.3, 871-898 doi:10.5194/esd-12-871-2021 (2021)

Pyrina M., Nonnenmacher M., Wagner S. and Zorita E. Statistical Seasonal Prediction of European Summer Mean Temperature Using Observational, Reanalysis, and Satellite Data. Weather and Weather and Forecasting, 36(4), 1537-1560 doi:10.1175/WAF-D-20-0235.1 (2021)

von Storch H. and Zorita E. Revisiting Hansen and Sutera’s suggestion of bimodality in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude circulation.. Dynamics of Atmosphere and Oceans 95, 101241 (2021)

Pyrina M, Moreno-Chamarro E, Wagner S, Zorita E. Surface and Tropospheric Response of North Atlantic Summer Climate from Paleoclimate Simulations of the Past Millennium. Atmosphere 12(5):568. doi:10.3390/atmos12050568 (2021)

Yi X., Birgit Hünicke B, and Zorita E. Evolution of the Arabian Sea Upwelling from the Last Millennium to the Future as Simulated by Earth System Models. Climate 9(5), 72 doi:10.3390/cli9050072 (2021)

Bothe, O. and Zorita E. Technical note: Considerations on using uncertain proxies in the analogue method for spatiotemporal reconstructions of millennial-scale climate. Clim. Past, 17, 721–751, doi: 10.5194/cp-17-721-2021 (2021)

Wahl E., Hoell A., Zorita E., Gille E., Diaz H. A 450-year Perspective on California Precipitation “Flips. Journal of Climate 33: 10221–10237,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0828.1 (2020)

Kirdyanov A., Krusic P., Shishov V., Vaganov E., Fertikov A., Myglan V., Varinov. V., Browse J., Esper J.,Ilyn V., Knorre A., korets M., Kukarskikh V., Mashukov D., onuchin A., Piermattei A., Pimenov A., Prokushikin A., Ryzhokova V., Shishikin A., Smith K., Tayni, A., Wild M, Zorita E., Büntgen U. Ecological and conceptual consequences of Arctic pollution. Ecology Letters, in press doi:10.1111/ele.13611 (2020).

Bothe O., and Zorit E. Proxy surrogate reconstructions for Europe and theestimation of their uncertainties. Climate of the Past 16, 341–369 doi:10.5194/cp-16-341-2020 (2020)

Carreno-Madinabeitia, S., Ibarra-Berastegi, G., Sáenz, J., Zorita, E., and Ulazia, A. Sensitivity Studies for a Hybrid Numerical–Statistical Short-Term Wind and Gust Forecast at Three Locations in the Basque Country (Spain). Atmosphere 11(1), 45. doi:10.3390/atmos11010045 (2020)

Bothe O., Wagner S. and Zorita E.Simple noise estimates and pseudoproxies for the last 21 000 years. Earth System Science Data 11, 1129-1152 doi:10.5194/essd-11-1129-2019 (2019)

Ljungqvist F.C., Seim A. , Krusic P.J. , González-Rouco J.F, Werner J.P. , Cook E.,R. , Zorita E. , Luterbacher J., Xoplaki E., Destouni G., García-Bustamante E., Melo Aguilar C.A., Seftigen K., Wang J., Gagen M.H., Esper J., Solomina O., Fleitmann D., and Büntgen U. European warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CE. Env. Res. Lett. 14, 084015 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab2c7e (2019)

Cuesta-Valero, F. J., García-García, A., Beltrami, H., Zorita, E., and Jaume-Santero, F. Long-term Surface Temperature (LoST) database as a complement for GCM preindustrial simulations . Clim. Past, 15, 1099-1111, doi: 10.5194/cp-15-1099-2019 (2019)

Zorita E.The climate of the past millennium and online public engagement in a scientific debate.. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, doi:10.1002/wcc.590 (2019).

Wahl E., Zorita E., Trouet V, and Taylor A. Jet Stream Dynamics, Hydroclimate, and Fire in California: 1600 CE to Present. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116, 5393-5398 doi: 10.1073/pnas.1815292116 (2019).

Hua T., Zorita E., Wang X., Wang N., Zhang C. Precipitation variability in the north fringe of East Asian Summer Monsoon during the past millennium and its possible driving factors.. Clim. Dynamics 53, 2587–2602 doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04643-1 (2019)

von Storch H. and Zorita E. The History of Ideas of Downscaling—From Synoptic Dynamics and Spatial Interpolation. Frontiers in Environmental Science doi:10.3389/fenvs.2019.00021 (2019)

Bothe, O., Wagner, S., and Zorita, E.. Inconsistencies between observed, reconstructed, and simulated precipitation indices for England since the year 1650 CE. Clim. Past, 15, 307-334, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-307-2019 (2019)

Tim, N., Zorita, E., Schwarzkopf, F. U., Rühs, S., Emeis, K.‐C., & Biastoch, A. The impact of Agulhas leakage on the central water masses in the Benguela upwelling system from a high‐resolution ocean simulation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 123, 9416–9428. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC014218 (2018)

Luterbacher J., Zorita E. Climate field reconstructions. In the Palgrave handbook of climate history, White, Sam, Pfister, Christian, Mauelshagen, Franz (Eds.) (2018)

Zorita E., Wagner S. Modeling of past climates. In the Palgrave handbook of climate history, White, Sam, Pfister, Christian, Mauelshagen, Franz (Eds.) (2018)

Zorita E., Wagner S, Schenk F., 2018. The global climate system. In the Palgrave handbook of climate history, White, Sam, Pfister, Christian, Mauelshagen, Franz (Eds.) (2018)

Ludwig P., Gómez-navarro J.,Pinto J., Raible C.,Wagner S., and Zorita E. Perspectives of regional paleoclimate modeling. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences doi: 10.1111/nyas.13865 (2018)

Zhang H., Werner J.P., García-Bustamante E., González-Rouco F., Wagner S., Zorita E., Fraedrich K., Jungclaus J.JH., Ljungqvist F.C., Zhu X., Xoplaki E., Chen F., Duan J., Ge Q., Hao Z., Ivanov M., Schneider L., Talento S., Wang J., Yang B. and Luterbacher J.. East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia. Nature Scientific Reports, doi:10.1038/s41598-018-26038-8 (2018)

Xoplaki E., Luterbacher J., Wagner S., Zorita E., Fleitmann D., Preiser-Keller J-. Sargent A., Toreti A., Haldon J., Mordechei L., Bozkurt D., Akçer-Ö S., Izdebski A. Modelling Climate and Societal Resilience in the Eastern Mediterranean in the Last Millennium. Human Ecology 46, 363–379doi:10.1007/s10745-018-9995-9 (2018)

Karabil, S., Zorita, E., and Hünicke, B. Contribution of atmospheric circulation to recent off-shore sea-level variations in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea..Earth Syst. Dynam.9, 69-90, doi:10.5194/esd-9-69-2018 (2018)

Yi X., Hünicke B., Nele Tim N. and Zorita E.The relationship between Arabian Sea upwelling and Indian Monsoon revisited in a high resolution ocean simulation. Climate Dynamics 50, 201–213 doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3599-8 (2018)

Barkhordarian, A., H. von Storch, E. Zorita, P.C. Loikith, and C.R. Mechoso. Observed warming over northern South America has an anthropogenic origin. Clim. Dyn. 51, 1901–1914doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3988-z (2018)

Karabil, S., Zorita, E., and Hünicke, B. Mechanisms of variability in decadal sea-level trends in the Baltic Sea over the 20th century. Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1031-1046, doi:10.5194/esd-8-1031-2017 (2017)

Evadzi P, Scheffran J., Zorita E., and Hünicke. Awareness of sea-level response under climate change on the coast of Ghana. J Coast Conserv. , in press doi:10.1007/s11852-017-0569-6 (2017).

Pyrina, M., Wagner, S. and Zorita, E. Pseudo-proxy evaluation of Climate Field Reconstruction methods of North Atlantic climate based on an annually resolved marine proxy network. Clim. Past, 13, 1339-1354 doi:10.5194/cp-13-1339-2017 ( 2017)

Jungclaus, J. H., Bard, E., Baroni, M., Braconnot, P., Cao, J., Chini, L. P., Egorova, T., Evans, M., González-Rouco, J. F., Goosse, H., Hurtt, G. C., Joos, F., Kaplan, J. O., Khodri, M., Klein Goldewijk, K., Krivova, N., LeGrande, A. N., Lorenz, S. J., Luterbacher, J., Man, W., Meinshausen, M., Moberg, A., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Otto-Bliesner, B. I., Phipps, S. J., Pongratz, J., Rozanov, E., Schmidt, G. A., Schmidt, H., Schmutz, W., Schurer, A., Shapiro, A. I., Sigl, M., Smerdon, J. E., Solanki, S. K., Timmreck, C., Toohey, M., Usoskin, I. G., Wagner, S., Wu, C.-Y., Yeo, K. L., Zanchettin, D., Zhang, Q. and Zorita, E. The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 3: the Last Millennium, Scientific Objective and Experimental Design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations Geosci. Model Dev. 10, 4005-4033. doi:10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017 (2017)

von Storch, H., Feser, F., Geyer, B., Klehmet, K., Li, D., Rockel, B., Schubert-Frisius, M., Tim, N. and Zorita, E. Regional re-analysis without local data - exploiting the downscaling paradigm . J. Geophys. Res. (Atmospheres), doi:10.1002/2016JD026332, in press.

Hartl‐Meier, C.T.M., Büntgen, U., Smerdon, J.E., Zorita, E., Krusic, P.J., Ljungqvist, F.C., Schneider, L. and Esper, J.Temperature covariance in tree‐ring reconstructions and model simulations over the past millennium. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1002/2017GL073239 (2017)

Bierstedt S., Hünicke B, Zorita E., and Ludwig J. A wind proxy based on migrating dunes at the Baltic coast: statistical analysis of the link between wind conditions and sand movement. Earth System Dynamics 8, 639-652 doi:10.5194/esd-8-639-2017 (2017)

Wang, J., Yang, B., Ljungqvist, F.C., Luterbacher, J., Osborn, T.J., Briffa, K.R., and Zorita, E. Internal and external forcing of multidecadal Atlantic climate variability over the past 1200 years. Nature Geoscience 10, 512–517 doi: 10.1038/ngeo2962. (2017)

Gómez-Navarro J.J., Zorita E., Raible C. and Neukom R. Pseudo-proxy tests of the analogue method to reconstruct spatially resolved global temperature during the Common Era . Climate of the Past 13, 629-648 doi:10.5194/cp-13-629-2017 (2017)

Büntgen U., Verstege A., J. Krusic P.J., Sangüesa Barreda G., Wagner S., Camarero J. , Zorita E., Ljungqvist F.C, Konter O., Oppenheimer C., Tegel1 W., Gärtner H., Cherubini P., Reinig F., and Esper J. New tree-ring evidence from the Pyrenees reveals Western Mediterranean climate variability since medieval times . Journal of Climate doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0526.1 (2017)

Anchukaitis K.J., Wilson R.,Briffa K.R., Büntgen U., Cook E.R.,D'Arrigo R., Davi N.,Esper J., Frank D., Gunnarson B.E.,Heger G.,Helama S., Klesse S., Krusic P.J.,Linderholm H., Myglan V., Osborn T.J.,Zhang P., Rydval M., Schneider L. , Schurer A.,Wiles G., Zorita E.Last millennium Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part II, spatially resolved reconstructions. Quaternary Science Rev. 163 1-22 doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.02.020 (2017)

Hünicke, B., Zorita, E. and von Storch, H. The challenge of Baltic Sea level change. In: Harff, J., Furmanczyk, K. and von Storch, H. (Editors) Coastline changes of the Baltic Sea from South to East -past and future projection, Springer Coastal Research Library Series.In: Coastline changes of the Baltic Sea from south to east. Springer, Cham, 2017. S. 37-54.

Evadzi P., Eduardo Zorita E. and and Hünicke B. Quantifying and predicting the contribution of sea level rise to shoreline change in Ghana: information for coastal adaptation strategies. Journal of Coastal Research 33, 1283 – 1291. doi:10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-16-00119.1 (2017).

Dorado-Liñán I; Zorita E, Martínez-Sancho E., Gea-Izquierdo G, Di Filippo A., Gutiérrez E, Levanic T, Piove G, Vacchiano G. Zang C., Zlatanov T., Annette Menzel A. Large-scale atmospheric circulation enhances the Mediterranean East-West tree growth contrast at rear-edge deciduous forests. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.02.029 (2017)

Flohr P., Fleitmann D., Zorita E., Sadekov A., Cheng H., Bosomworth M., Edwards L., Matthews W., and Matthews R. Late Holocene droughts in the Fertile Crescent recorded in a speleothem from northern Iraq. Geophys. Res. Lett.44 1528-1536 doi:10.1002/2016GL071786 (2017)

Pyrina M, Wagner S, Zorita E, Evaluation of CMIP5 models over the northern North Atlantic in the context of forthcoming paleoclimatic reconstructions. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3536-x (2017)

Wilson, R., Anchukaitis, K., Briffa, K.R., Büntgen, U., Cook, E., D'arrigo, R., Davi, N., Esper, J., Frank, D., Gunnarson, B. and Hegerl, G. Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part I: The long term context . Quaternary Science Reviews, 1-18 doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.12.005 (2016).

Barkhordarian A., von Storch H., Zorita E., Gómez-Navarro J. An attempt to deconstruct recent climate change in the Baltic Sea Basin.J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121, 13,207–13,217 doi:10.1002/2015JD024648 (2016)

Hünicke B and Zorita E. Statistical analysis of the acceleration of Baltic mean sea-level rise, 1900-2012. Frontiers Marine Sciences, doi:10.3389/fmars.2016.00125 (2016)

Gagen M., Zorita E., McCarroll D., Zahn M., Young G., Robertson I. North Atlantic summer storm tracks over Europe dominated by internal variability over the past millennium. Nature Geosciences 9, 630-637. doi:10.1038/ngeo2752 (2016)

Tim N, Zorita E, Hünicke B., Yi X., and Emeis K.. The importance of external climate forcing for the variability and trends of coastal upwelling in past and future climate. Ocean Science, 12, 807–823, doi:10.5194/os-12-807-2016 (2016)

H. F. Diaz, E. R. Wahl, E.Zorita, Th. W. Giambelluca, and J. K. Eischeid. A Five-Century Reconstruction of Hawaiian Islands Winter Rainfall. J. of Climate 29,5661-5674doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0815.1 (2016)

Ljungqvist F.C., Krusic P.J., Sundqvist H.S., Zorita E.,Brattström G. and Frank D.Northern Hemisphere hydroclimate variability over the past twelve centuries. Nature 532, 94–98 doi:10.1038/nature17418 (2016)

Ocaña V., Zorita E., and Heimbach P. Stochastic secular trends in sea level rise. J. of Geophys. Res., 121, 2183–2202 DOI: 10.1002/2015JC011301 (2016)

S. E. Bierstedt , B. Hünicke, E. Zorita, S. Wagner, and J. J. Gómez-Navarro. Variability of daily winter wind speed distribution over Northern Europe during the past millennium in regional and global climate simulations. Climate of the Past, 12, 317-338 doi:10.5194/cp-12-317-2016 (2016)

J Luterbacher, J P Werner, J E Smerdon, L Fernández-Donado, F J González-Rouco, D Barriopedro, F C Ljungqvist, U Büntgen, E Zorita, S Wagner, J Esper, D McCarroll, A Toreti, D Frank, J H Jungclaus, M Barriendos, C Bertolin,15, O Bothe, R Brázdil, D Camuffo, P Dobrovolný, M Gagen, E García-Bustamante, Q Ge, J J Gómez-Navarro, J Guiot, Z Hao, G C Hegerl, K Holmgren, V V Klimenko, J Martín-Chivelet, C Pfister, N Roberts, A Schindler, A Schurer, O Solomina, L von Gunten, E Wahl, H Wanner , O Wetter, E Xoplaki, N Yuan, D Zanchettin, H Zhang and C Zerefos. European summer temperatures since Roman times.Environ. Res. Lett. 11 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001 (2016).

PAGES 2k-PMIP3 group. Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium. Climate of the Past 11, 1673-1699 doi:10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 (2015).

Xoplaki E., Fleitmann D., Luterbacher J., Wagner S., F. Haldon J.F., Zorita E., Telelis I., Toreti A., Izdebski A. The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Byzantium: A review of the evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change. Quat. Sci. Rev. 136,229–252 (2015) doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.10.004

Bierstedt S., Hünicke B., Zorita E.Variability of wind direction statistics of mean and extreme wind events over the Baltic Sea region. Tellus A 2015, 67, 29073, doi:10.3402/tellusa.v67.29073 (2015).

Dorado-Liñán, I., Sanchez-Lorenzo A., Gutiérrez-Merino, Planells O., Heinrich I., Helle G., Zorita E. Changes in surface solar radiation in Northeastern Spain over the past six centuries recorded by tree-ring δ¹³C. Climate Dynamics, 47 937–950 doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2881-x

Gómez-Navarro J.J., Bothe O., Wagner S., Zorita E., Werner J.P., Luterbacher J., Raible C.C., and Montávez J.P.. A regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500-1990 - Part 2: Shortcomings and strengths of models and reconstructions . Clim. Past, 11, 1077-1095, doi:10.5194/cp-11-1077-2015 (2015).

Dangendorf S., Marcos M., Müller A., Zorita E., Riva R., Berk. K. and Jensen J. Detecting anthropogenic footprints in sea level rise. Nature Communications 6, doi:10.1038/ncomms8849 (2015)

Tim N, Zorita E, Hünicke B. Decadal variability and trends of the Benguela upwelling system as simulated in a high-resolution ocean simulation. Ocean Sci., 11, 483-502doi:10.5194/os-11-483-2015 (2015).

Santos J.A., Carneiro F.M., Correia A., Alcoforado M.J., Zorita E., Gomez-Navarro JJ. New insights into the reconstructed temperature in Portugal over the last 400 years. Climate of the Past 11, 825-834 doi:10.5194/cp-11-825-2015 (2015)

U. Büntgen,M.Trnka,P. Krusic,T. Kyncl,J. Kyncl, J. Luterbacher,E. Zorita,F.C. Ljungqvist, I. Auer,O. Konter,L. Schneider,W. Tegel,P. Štěpánek, S. Brönnimann, L. Hellmann,D. Nievergelt,J. Esper.Tree-Ring Amplification of the Early-19th Century Summer Cooling in Central Europe J. of Climate, publish on-line doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00673.1

Santos JA, Carneiro MF, Alcoforado MJ, Leal S, Luz AL, Camuffo D and Zorita E. Calibration and multi-source consistency analysis of reconstructed precipitation series in Portugal since the early 17th . The Holocene 25, 663-676 doi:10.1177/0959683614566250 (2015)

Gómez-Navarro, J., J. Werner, S. Wagner, J. Luterbacher and E. Zorita. Establishing the skill of climate field reconstruction techniques for precipitation with pseudoproxy experiments.. Climate Dynamics 46,1395-1413 , doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2388-xc (2015)

I. Dorado-Liñán, E. Zorita, J. F. González-Rouco, I. Heinrich, F. Campello, L. Andreu-Hayles, E. Muntán, E. Guti6eacute;rrez. Eight-hundred years of summer temperature variations in the southeast of the Iberian Peninsula reconstructed from tree rings. Climate Dynamics 44, 75-93 doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2348-5 (2015)

K.-C. Emeis, J. van Beusekom, U. Callies, R. Ebinghaus, A. Kannen, G. Kraus, I. Kröncke, H.Lenhart, I. Lorkowski, V. Matthias, C. Möllmann, J. Pätsch, M. Scharfe, H. Thomas, R. Weisse, E. Zorita. The North Sea - a shelf sea in the Anthropocene. J. of Marine Systems 141, 18-33 doi: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2014.03.012 (2015)

S. Dangendorf, D. Rybski, C. Murdersbach, A. Müller; E. Kaufmann, E. Zorita, J. Jensen. Evidence for long-term memory in sea level. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 5530-5537, doi:10.1002/2014GL060538 (2014)

J.C. Acosta Navarro , S. Smolander , H. Struthers , E. Zorita , A. Ekman , J.O. Kaplan , A. Guenther , A. Arneth , I. Riipinen. Global emissions of terpenoid VOCs from terrestrial vegetation in the last millennium. J. Geophys. Res. 119, 6867-6885 doi: 10.1002/2013JD021238 (2014)

O. Wetter, C. Pfister,J. P. Werner, E. Zorita,S. Wagner, S.I. Seneviratne,J. Herget, U. Grünewald, J. Luterbacher, M.-J. Alcoforado, M. Barriendos, Ursula Bieber, R. Braázdil, K. H. Burmeister, C. Camenisch, A. Contino, P. Dobrovoln&yacute, R. Glaser, I. Himmelsbach, A. Kiss, O. Kotyza, T. Labbé, D. Limanówka, L. Litzenburger, Ø. Nordl, Kathleen Pribyl, D. Retsö & D. Riemann, Christian Rohr, W. Siegfried, Johan Söderberg, J.-L. Spring. The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 - a worst case. Climate Change doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2 (2014)

W. Zhang, J. Harff, R. Schneider M. Meyer, E. Zorita, B. Hünicke. Holocene morphogenesis at the southern Baltic Sea: simulation of multi-scale processes and their interactions f or the Darss-Zingst peninsula.. J. Marine Systems 129,4-18 doi: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2013.06.003 (2014)

Errasti, I., Ezcurra, A., Sáenz, J., Ibarra-Berastegi, G., and Zorita, E. Comparison of the main characteristics of the daily zonally averaged surface air temperature as represented by reanalysis and seven CMIP3 models. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 1-20 doi:10.1007/s00704-013-0842-z (2013).

Esnaola G., Sáenz, Zorita E., Fontán A., Valencia A. and Lazure P. Daily scale winter time sea surface temperature and IPC-Navidad variability in the southern Bay of Biscay from 1981-2010. Ocean Science 9, 655-679 doi:10.5194/os-9-655-2013 (2013).

J. J. Gómez-Navarro and E. Zorita. Atmospheric annular modes in simulations over the past millennium: no long-term response to external forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 3232-3236 doi: 10.1002/grl.50628 (2013).

Esper J., Schneider L., Krusic P., Luterbacher J., Büntgen U., Timonen M., Sirocko F., Zorita E. European summer temperature response to annually dated volcanic eruptions over the past nine centuries.. Bulletin of Volcanology, 75(7), 736-749 doi:10.​1007/​s00445-013-0736-z) (2013).

J. J. Gómez-Navarro, J. P. Montávez, S. Wagner, and E. Zorita. A regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500-1990 - Part 1: Model validation. . Climate of the Past 9, 1667-1682 (2013).

Bothe, O., Jungclaus, J. H., Zanchettin, D., and Zorita, E. Climate of the last millennium: ensemble consistency of simulations and reconstructions. Clim. Past, 9, 1089-1110, doi:10.5194/cp-9-1089-2013 (2013)

Pages 2K Consortium. Continental-scale temperature variability during the the last two millennia.

Nature Geosciences 6, 339-346 doi:0.1038/ngeo1797 (2013)

D. McCarroll, N.J. Loader, R. Jalkanen, M.H. Gagen, H. Grudd, B.E. Gunnarson, A.J. Kirchhefer, M. Friedrich, H.W. Linderholm, M. Lindholm, T. Boettger, S. O. Los, S. Remmele, Y.M. Kononov, Y.H. Yamazaki,G.H.F. Young and Eduardo Zorita. A 1200-year multiproxy record of tree growth and summer temperature at the northern pine forest limit of Europe. The Holocene, 23(4), 471-484 (2013).

Fernández-Donado L,J., F. González-Rouco,C.C. Raible, C.M. Ammann, D. Barriopedro, E. García-Bustamante, J.H. Jungclaus , S.J. Lorenz, J. Luterbacher, S.J. Phipps, J. Servonnat, D. Swingedouw, S.F.B. Tett, S. Wagner, P. Yiou, and E. Zorita. Large-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium. Climate of the Past 9,393-421 (2013).

Cunningham, L.K., Austin, W.E.N, Knudson, K-L, Eiriksson, J, Scourse, J, Wanamaker Jnr, A., Butler, P., Cage, A., Kristensen, D.K., Richter, T., Husum, K., Hald, M., Andersson, C., Zorita, E, Linderholm, H., Gunnarson, B. , Sicre, M.A., Sejrup, H.P., Jiang, H., and Wilson, R.J.S.. Reconstructions of surface ocean conditions from the North East Atlantic and Nordic Seas during the last millennium. The Holocene 23, 921-935 (2013)

S. Jerez, J. P. Montávez, P. Jiménez-Guerrero, J. .J Gómez-Navarro, R. Lorente, E. Zorita. A multi-physics ensemble of present-day climate simulations over the Iberian Peninsula: Assessing the role of parameterization schemes. Climate Dynamics 40, 3023-3046 doi:10.1007/s00382- 012-1539-1 (2013)

Gómez-Navarro, J.J, Montávez, J.P, Jerez, S., Jiménez-Guerrero, P., Zorita, E.. What is the role of the observational dataset in the evaluation and scoring of climate models? . Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L24701, doi:10.1029/2012GL054206 (2012)

Gustafsson B.G., Schenk F., Blenckner T., Eilola K., Meier H.E.M., Muller-Karulis B., Neumann T., Ruoho-Airola T., Savchuk O.P., Zorita E. Reconstructing the development of Baltic Sea eutrophication 1850-2006. Ambio 41, 534-548 doi:10.1007/s13280-012-0318-x (2012).

Meier H.E., , Andersson H.C: , Arheimer B., Blenckner T., Chubarenko B. ,Donnelly C., Eilola K., Gustafsson B.G., Hansson A., Havenhand J., Höglund A., Kuznetsov I., MacKenzie B.R., Muller-Karulis B., Neumann T., Niiranen S., Piwowarczyk J., Raudsepp U., Reckermann M., Ruoho-Airola T., Savchuk O.P., Schenk.F, Schimanke S., Väli G., Weslawski J.-M and Zorita E. Comparing reconstructed past variations and future projections of the Baltic Sea ecosystem --first results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Env. Res. Lett. 7, 034005 (2012).

Barkhordarian, A., von Storch H., and Zorita E. Anthropogenic forcing is a plausible explanation for the observed surface specific humidity trends over the Mediterranean area. . Geophys.Res. Letters 39, L19706, doi:10.1029/2012GL053026 (2012)

J. Esper, D. C. Frank, M. Timonen, E. Zorita, R. J. S. Wilson, J. Luterbacher, S. Holzkämper, N. Fischer, S. Wagner, D. Nievergelt, A. Verstege, U. Büntgen. Orbital forcing of tree-ring data. Nature Climate Change 2, 862-866 doi:10.1038/nclimate1589 (2012).

Rösner,R., Müller-Navarra, D., and Zorita,E. Trend analysis of weekly temperatures and oxygen concentrations during summer stratification in Lake Plußsee: A long-term study. Limnology and Oceanography 57, 1479-1491 (2012).

E.Zorita. A basic introduction to climate modeling and its uncertainties. In: M. Reckermann, K. Brander, B. MacKenzie and A. Omstedt (eds): Climate Impacts on the Baltic Sea: From Science to Policy, in press (Flyer)

Esnaola, G., J. Sáenz, E. Zorita, P. Lazure, U. Ganzedo, A. Fontón, G. Ibarra-Berastegi, and A. Ezcurra. Coupled air-sea interaction patterns and surface heat-flux feedback in the Bay of Biscay. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117 ,C06030, doi:10.1029/2011JC007692 (2012).

F. Schenk and E. Zorita. Reconstruction of high resolution atmospheric fields for Northern Europe using analog-upscaling. Clim. Past, 8, 1681-1703 (2012).

I. Dorado-Liñán, U. Büntgen, F. González-Rouco, E. Zorita, J. P. Montávez J. J. González-Navarro, M. Brunet, I. Heinrich, G. Helle, and E. Gutiérrez. Estimating 750 years of temperature variations and its uncertainties in the Pyrenees by tree-ring reconstructions and climate simulations. Climate of the Past 8, 919-933 doi:10.5194/cp-8-919-2012 (2012).

J. J. Gómez-Navarro, J. P. Montávez S. Jerez, P. Jiménez-Guerrero, R. Lorente-Plazas, J. F. González-Rouco, E. Zorita. Internal and external variability in regional simulations of the Iberian Peninsula climate over the last millennium. Climate of the Past 8, 25-36 (2012).

U. Ganzedo ,G.Esnaola, A.Alvera-Azcárate, J. Sáenz, E. Zorita, G.Ibarra-Berastegui, A. Ezcurra and A. Fontán. Sea Surface temperature in the Bay of Biscay by means of DINEOF. 1985 to 2009 period. Submitted to Journal of Geophys. Res.

J. J. Gómez-Navarro, J. P. Montávez, S. Jerez, P. Jiménez-Guerrero, R. Lorente-Plazas, J. F. González-Rouco, and E. Zorita. A regional climate simulation over the Iberian Peninsula for the last millennium. Climate of the Past 7, 451 doi: 10.5194/cp-7-451-2011 (2011).

J. Luterbacher, R. García-Herrera, A. R. Allan, M.C. Álvarez-Castro, G. Benito, J. Booth, U. Büntgen, D. Colombaroli, B. Davis, J. Esper, T. Felis, D. Fleitmann, D. Frank, D. Gallego, E. García-Bustamante, F.J. Gonz/aacute;lez-Rouco, H. Goosse, T. Kiefer, M.G. Macklin, S.W. Manning, P. Montagna, L. Newman, M.J. Power, V. Rath, P. Ribera, N. Roberts, S. Silenzi, W. Tinner, P.C. Tzedakis, B. Valero-Garcés, G. van der Schrier, B. Vannière, H. Wanner, J.P. Werner, G. Willett, E. Xoplaki, C.S. Zerefos, E. Zorita. A Review of 2000 years of paleoclimatic evidence in the Mediterranean. In: Lionello et al. (eds.), The Mediterranean Climate: from past to future. Elsevier, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, in press.

M. Gagen, E. Zorita, D. McCarroll, G.H.F. Young, H. Grudd, R. Jalkanen, N.J. Loader, I. Robertson, and A. Kirchhefer. Cloud response to summer temperatures in Fennoscandia over the last thousand years. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L05701, doi:10.1029/2010GL046216 (2011).

Smerdon, J.E.; Kaplan, A.; Zorita, E.; Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F.; Evans, M.N. Spatial performance of four climate field reconstruction methods targeting the Common Era . Geophysical Research Letters. 38 L11705. (doi:: 10.1029/2011GL047372) (2011)

Frank, D., J. Esper, E. Zorita, R. Wilson. A noodle, hockey stick, and spaghetti plate: a perspective on high-resolution paleoclimatology. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change 1, 507-516 (2010) , doi: 10.1002/wcc.53 (2010).

R. Brázdil, P. Dobrovoln&yacute, J. Luterbacher, A. Moberg, C. Pfister, D. Wheeler, E. Zorita. European climate of the last 500 years: new challanges for historical climatology. Climatic Change 101, 7-40, doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9783-z (2010).

J. Luterbacher, S.J. König, J. Franke, G. van der Schrier, P.M. Della-Marta, J. Jacobeit, M. Küttel,F.J. Gonz/aacute;lez-Rouco, E. Zorita, E. Xoplaki, M. Stössel, T. Rutishauser, H. Wanner, C. Pfister, R. Brázdil, P. Dobrovolný, D. Camuffo, C. Bertolin, A. Moberg, L. Leijonhufvud, J. Soderberg, R. Allan, R. Wilson, D. Wheeler, M. Barriendos, R. Glaser, D. Riemann, O. Nordli, D. Limanówka, A. van Engelen, C.S. Zerefos. Circulation dynamics and its influence on European and Mediterranean January-April climate over the past half millennium: Results and insights from instrumental data, documentary proxy evidence and coupled climate models. Climatic Change 101, 201-234, doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9782-0 (2010).

Luterbacher, J., Xoplaki, E., Küttel, M., Rutishauser, T., Stössel, M., Wanner, H., Gonález-Rouco, F.J., Zorita, E., Wibig, J., Przybylak, R., and Jones, P.D.: In: R. Przybylak et al. (eds.), The Polish Climate in the European Context: An Historical Overview; DOI 10.1007/978-90-481-3167-9_1, 3-39 (2010).

E. Zorita, A. Moberg, L. Leijonhufvud, R. Wilson, R. Brázdil, P. Dobrovolný, J. Luterbacher, R. Böhm, Ch. Pfister, R. Glaser, J. Söderberg, F. González-Rouco. European temperature records of the past five centuries based on documentary information compared to climate simulations. Climatic Change 101, 143-168, doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9824-7 (2010).

U. Ganzedo, E. Zorita, A. P. Solari, G. Chust, A. Santana del Pino, J. Polanco and J. J. Castro. What drives the tuna capture between the XVI (1525) and XVII (1756)centuries in Southern Europe? ICES Journal of Marine Sciences, 66, 1595 - 160 (2009).

H. von Storch, E. Zorita and F. González-Rouco. Relationships between global mean sea-level and global mean temperature and heat-flux in a climate simulation of the past millennium. Ocean Dynamics, 58, 227-236, DOI 10.1007/s10236-088-0142-9 (2009).

Jian Liu, Bin Wang, Qinghua Ding, Xueyuan Kuang, Willie Soon , and Eduardo Zorita. Centennial variations of the global monsoon precipitation in the last millennium: Results from ECHO-G model. Journal of Climate 22, 2356-2371 (2009).

J. F. Gonález-Rouco, H. Beltrami, E. Zorita, and M. B. Stevens. Borehole climatology: a discussion based on contributions from climate modeling. Climate of the Past 97-127 (2009).

H. von Storch, E. Zorita and F. González-Rouco. Assessement of three temperature reconstruction m ethods in the virtual reality of a climate simulation. International Journal of Earth Sciences 98, 67-82 (2009).

E. Zorita, T. Stocker and H. von Storch. How unusual is the recent s eries of warm years? Geophysical Research Letters 35, L24706 doi:10.1029/2008GL036228 (2008). See comment by G. Bürger and our response.

J. Smerdon, F. González-Rouco and E. Zorita. Comment on 'Robustness of proxy-based climate field reconstructions methods' by Mann et al. J. Geophys. Res. 113, D18106, doi:10.1029/2007JD00954 (2008).

Matulla, C., X. Zahng, X.L. Wang, J. Wang, E. Zorita, S. Wagner and H. von Storch. Influence of similarity measures on the performance of the analog method for downscaling precipitation. Climate Dynamics 30, 133-144 (2008).

B. Hünicke, J. Luterbacher, A. Pauling, and E. Zorita. Regional differences in winter sea-level variations in the Baltic Sea for the past 200 years. Tellus, Tellus 60A (2), 384-393 (2008).

B. Hünicke and E. Zorita. Trends in the amplitude of Baltic Sea level annual cycle. Tellus, Tellus 60A (1), 154-164 (2008).

M. Küttel, J. Luterbacher, E. Zorita, E. Xoplaki, N. Riedwyl and H. Wanner. Testing a European winter surface temperature reconstruction in a surrogate climate. Geophysical Research Letters 34, L07710,doi:101029/2006GL027907 (2007).

I. Gouirand, V. Moron, E. Zorita. Teleconnections between ENSO and North Atlantic in an ECHO-G simulation of the 1000-1990 period. Geophysical Research Letters 34 L06706 doi:10.1029/2006GL028852 (2007).

E. Fischer, J. Luterbacher, E. Zorita, S. Tett , C. Casty , H. Wanner. European climate response to tropical volcanic eruptions over the last half millennium. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L05707 doi: 10.1029/2006GL027992 (2007).

E. Zorita, F. González-Rouco and H. von Storch. Comment to "Testing the fidelity of methods used in proxy-based reconstructions of past climate" by Mann et al.. J. Climate 20, 3693 (2007).

J. Fernández, J.P Montávez, J. Sáenz, J.F. González-Rouco, and E. Zorita. Sensitivity of the MM5 mesoscale model to physical parametrizations for regional climate studies: annual cycle. J. Geophys. Res.,112, D04101, doi:10.1029/2005JD006649 (2007).

I. Gouirand, A. Moberg and E. Zorita. Climate variability in Scandinavia for the past millennium simulated by an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Tellus 59, 30-49 (2007).

G. Hegerl, T. Crowley, M. Allen, W. Hyde, H. Pollack, J. Smerdon and E. Zorita. Detection of human influence on a new, validated 1500-year temperature reconstruction. J. of Climate 20, 650 (2007).

D. Fíras, E. Zorita, J. Fernández, C. Rodríguez-Puebla. Testing statistical downscaling methods in simulated climates. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L19807 (2006).

H.v. Storch, E. Zorita, J. Jones, F. González-Rouco and S.F.B. Tett.Response to "Testing climate reconstructions by Rahmstorf". Science, 312, 1872-1873 (2006). This comment and our answer are not peer-reviewed. It is included in this list for the interested reader.

H.v. Storch, E. Zorita, J. Jones, Y. Dimitriev, F. González-Rouco and S.F.B. Tett. Response to the comment by Wahl, Ritson and Amman "Reconstruction of century scale temperature variations". Science 312,529 (2006). See also the comment by Wahl et al. and a GKSS press release.

T. Crueger,H. Kuhnert, J. Paetzold, E. Zorita. Calibrations of Bermuda corals against large-scale SST- and SLP-pattern time series and implications for climate reconstructions. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D23103, doi:10.1029/2005JD006903 (2006).

F. Gonzalez-Rouco,H. Beltrami, E. Zorita, H. von Storch. Simulation and inversion of borehole temperature profiles in simulated climates: Spatial distribution and surface coupling. Geophys. Res. Letters 33, L01703 (2006).

B. Hünicke and E. Zorita. Influence of temperature and precipitation on decadal Baltic Sea level variations in 20th century. Tellus 58A, 141-153 (2006).

M.A. Cane, P. Braconnot, A. Clement, H. Gildor, S. Joussaume, M. Kagayama, M. Khodri, D. Paillard, S. Tett, E. Zorita. Progress in Paleoclimate Modeling. Journal of Climate 19, 5031-5071 (2006).

U. Cubasch, F. Kaspar, E. Zorita, K. Prömmel, H.v. Storch, F. Gonz/aacute;lez-Rouco. Simulation of the role of solar and orbital forcing on climate. Advances in Space Research 37, 1629-1634 (2006).

H. von Storch and E. Zorita. Comment on "Hockey sticks, principal components and spurious significance" by S . McIntyre and R. McKitrick. Geophys. Research Letters, 32 L20701 (2005).
See also the response by McIntyre and McKitrik.

Liu, J., H. von Storch, X. Chen, E. Zorita, J. Zheng, and S. Wang. Simulated and reconstructed temperature in the eastern China during the last millennium. Chinese Science Bulletin, 50(24): 2872-2877 (in Chinese. 2005,50(20):2251-2255) (2005).

I. Fischer-Bruns, H. von Storch, J.F. González-Rouco and E. Zorita. Modelling the Variability of Midlatitude Storm Activity on Decadal to Century Time Scales. Climate Dynamics 25, 461-476 (2005).

S. Wagner and E. Zorita. The influence of volcanic, solar and CO₂ forcing on the temperatures in the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830): a model study. Climate Dynamics 25, 205-218 (2005).

H. Goosse, T. Crowley, E. Zorita, C. Amman, H. Renssen and E. Driesschaert. Modelling the climate of the last millennium. What causes the differences between models?.Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L06710 (2005).

E. Zorita, F. González-Rouco, H. von Storch, J.P. Montavez and F. Valero. Natural and anthropogenic modes of surface temperature variations in the last thousand years. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L08707 (2005).

S. Wagner, S. Legutke and E. Zorita. European winter temperature variability in a long coupled model simulation: the contribution of ocean dynamics. Climate Dynamics 25, 37-50 (2005).

Storch, H. von, E. Zorita, J. M. Jones, Y. Dmitriev. F. González and S. F. B. Tett. Reconstructing past climate from noisy data. Science 306, 679-682 (2004).This paper was awarded the von-Sengbusch-Award as the most cited paper in 2004-2008 in the GKSS Research centre.

Eduardo Zorita, Hans von Storch, Fidel González-Rouco, Ulrich Cubasch, Jürg Luterbacher, Stephanie Legutke, Irene Fischer-Bruns and Ulrich Schles e. Climate evolution in the last five centuries simulated by an atmosphere- ocean model: global temperatures, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Late M aunder Minimum. Meteorologische Zeitschrift 13, 271-289 (2004).

D. Mueller-Navarra, M. Brett, S. Park, S. Chandra, A. Ballantyne, E. Zorita and C. Goldman. Seston unsaturated fatty acid content and tropho-dynamic coupling in lakes. Nature, 427, 69-72 (2004).

F. González-Rouco, H. von Storch and E. Zorita. Deep soil temperature as proxy for surface air-temperature in a coupled model simulation of the last thousand years. Geophysical Research Letters 30, 2116-9 (2003).

F. Feser, H. v. Storch, R. Weisse and E. Zorita. Aliasing in power spectra: comment on "Improved global maps and 54-year history of wind-work on ocean inertial motions" by M.H. Alford.Geophysical Research Letters 22, art. 2165 (2003).

KIHZ-Consortium: J. Zinke, H. von Storch, B. Müller, E. Zorita, B. Rein, H. B. Mieding, H. Miller, A. Lücke, G.H. Schleser, M.J. Schwab, J.F.W. Negendank, U. Kienel, J.F. González-Ruoco, C. Dullo and A. Eisenhauser, 2003: Evidence for the climate during the Late Maunder Minimum from proxy data available within KIHZ. In H. Fischer, T. Kumke, G. Lohmann, G. Flöser, H. Miller, H von Storch und J. F. W. Negendank (Eds.): The KIHZ project: towards a synthesis of Holocene proxy data and climate models, Springer Verlag, Berlin - Heidelberg - New York.

Jesus Fernández, Jon Sáenz and Eduardo Zorita. Analysis of wintertime atmospheric moisture transport and its variability over the Mediterranean basin in the NCEP-Reanalyses. Climate Research 23, 195-215 (2003).

G.N.Sumner,N.Romero, V. Homar, C. Ramis, S. Alonso and E. Zorita.An estimate of the effects of climate change on the rainfall of Mediterranean Spain by the late 21st century. Climate Dynamics 20, 789-805 (2003).

E. Zorita, F. González-Rouco and S. Legutke. Testing the Mann et al. (1998) Approach to Paleoclimate Reconstructions in the Context of a 1000-Yr Control Simulation with the ECHO-G Coupled Climate M odel . Journal of Climate 16,1378-1390 (2003).

Eduardo Zorita and Fidel González-Rouco. Are temperature-sensitive proxies adequate for North Atlantic Oscillation reconstructions?. Geophysical Research Letters, 29 (14), 48-1 - 48-4 (2002).

E. Zorita and F. Tilya: Rainfall variability in North Tanzania in the March-May season (long rains) and its links to large-scale climate forcing. Climate Research 20, 31-40 (2002).

W. Petersen, U. Callies, L. Bertino and E. Zorita. Process identification by statistical analysis of water quality data. Ecological Modelling, 138, 193-213 (2001).

E. Zorita and J.F. González-Rouco: Disagreement between predictions of the future behavior of the Arctic Oscillation as simulated in two different climate models: Implications for global warming. Geophysical Research Letters 27, 1755-1758 (2000).

E. Zorita and A. Laine: Dependence of salinity and oxygen concentrations in the Baltic Sea on the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Climate Research 14, 25-41 (2000). Also available as GKSS-Report 99/E/14.

González-Rouco, F., H. Heyen, E. Zorita, and F. Valero: Agreement between observed rainfall trends and climate change simulations in the Southwest of Europe. Journal of Climate 13, 3057-3065 (2000).

G. Biau, E. Zorita, H.v.Storch and H. Wackernagel: Estimation of precipitation by kriging in the EOF space of the Sea level Pressure field. Journal of Climate 12, 1070-1085 (1999). Also available as GKSS Report No 97/E/45.

E. Zorita and H.v.Storch: The analog method as a simple statistical downscaling technique:comparison with more complicated methods. Journal of Climate 12, 2474-2489 (1999).

M. Cui and E. Zorita: Analysis of the sea-level variability along the Chinese coast and estimation of the impact of a CO₂-perturbed atmospheric circulation. Tellus 50A, 333-347 (1998). Also available as GKSS Report No 97/E/19.

E. Zorita and C. Frankignoul.Modes of North Atlantic decadal variability in the ECHAM1/LSG coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Journal of Climate 10, 183-200 (1997).

C. Frankignoul, P. Müller, and E. Zorita. A simple model of the decadal response of the ocean to stochastic wind forcing. Journal of Physical Oceanography 27, 1533-1546 (1997).

J. von Storch, V. Kharin, , U. Cubasch, G. Hegerl, D. Schriever, H. von Storch, and E. Zorita.A description of a 1260-year control integration with the coupled ECHAM1/LSG general circulation model.Journal of Climate 10, 1525-1543 (1997), also available as Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Report No.198.

U. Cubash, H.v.Storch, J. Waszkezwitz and E. Zorita: Estimates of climate changes in southern Europe using different downscaling techniques. Climate Research 7, 129-149 (1996) , also available as Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Report No.183.

H. Heyen, E. Zorita and H.v. Storch: Statistical downscaling of winter monthly mean North Atlantic sea-level pressure to sea level variations in the Baltic sea.Tellus 48 A 312-323 (1996), also available as Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Report No.150.

M. Cui, H. von Storch and E. Zorita. Coastal sea level and the large scale climate state: a downscaling exercise for the Japanese Islands .Tellus 47A, 132 -144 (1995).

E. Zorita, J. Hughes, D. Lettenmaier and H. von Storch. Stochastic characterization of regional circulation patterns for climate model diagnosis and estimation of local precipitation. Journal of Climate 8, 1023-1042 (1995), also avaiable as Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Report No.109.

H.von Storch, E. Zorita and U. Cubasch. Downscaling of global climate change estimates to regional scales: an application to Iberian rainfall in wintertime. Journal of Climate 6, 1161-1171 (1993), also available as Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Report No.64.

E.Zorita, V. Kharin and H.von Storch.The atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic area in winter: their interaction and relevance for Iberian precipitation. Journal of Climate 5, 1097-1108 (1992). Also available as Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Report No.54.

------------------ Solid State Physics -----------------------

R. Alcalá, E. Zorita and P.J. Alonso. Ni⁺ centers in RbCaF₃ : Application to the study of the 195-K structural phase transition. Physical Review B 38, 11 156 (1988).

R. Alcalá E. Zorita, P.J. Alonso,J.M. Spaeth and Th. Hangleiter: EPR stud y of Ni⁺ in RbCaF₃ below the cubic- tetragonal phase transition. Solid State Commun. 68, 167 (1988).

E. Zorita, P.J. Alonso, R. Alcalá, J.M. Spaeth and H. Soethe. ENDOR study of Ni²⁺ in KMgF₃. Solid State Communications 66, 773 (1988).

R. Alcalá, E. Zorita and P.J. Alonso. Monovalent nickel in K₂MgF₄ :an EPR investigation. Journal of Physics C21, 461 (1988).

E. Zorita, P.J. Alonso and R. Alcalá.Tetragonal Ni⁺ ions in x- irradiated KMgF₃ :Ni. Physical Review B 35, 3116 (1987).

P.J. Alonso,E. Zorita and R. AlcaláTetravalent vanadium in CaF₂ and SrF₂ crystals. J. Phys. Chem. Solids 46, 1351 (1985).

E. Zorita, P.J. Alonso and R. Alcalá. EPR of V³⁺in SrCl₂. Solid State Communications 56, 61 (1985).

------------------ Outreach publications -----------------------

Zorita, E. La tierra ahora en su momento mas frío (?) . Tiempo y Clima, Octubre 2024.

Zorita, E. Las Sequías: entre la mitigación y la adaptación al cambio climático. Tiempo y Clima, Abril 2024.

Zorita, E. La inteligencia artificial irrumpe en la predicción meteorológica. Tiempo y Clima, Octubre 2023.

Zorita, E. Predicciones estacionales con inteligencia artificial. Tiempo y Clima, Abril 2023.

Zorita, E. De nuevo, incendios. Tiempo y Clima, Octubre 2022.

Zorita, E. Es constante el potencial eólico ?. Tiempo y Clima, Abril 2022.

Zorita, E. Inundaciones y circulación atmosférica. Tiempo y Clima, Octubre 2021.

Zorita, E. La Inteligencia Artificial en climatología. Tiempoy Clima, Abril 2021.

Zorita, E. El alumno aventajado. Tiempo y Clima, Octubre 2020.

Zorita, E. La influencia del clima en enfermedades infecciosas. Tiempo y Climae, Abril 2020.

Zorita, E. Un clima más sensible. Tiempo y Clima, Octubre 2019.

Zorita, E. Clima e incendios. Tiempo y Clima, Abril 2019.

Zorita, E. Las causas de los fenómenos extremos. Tiempo y Clima, Octubre 2018.

Zorita, E. El chivo expiatorio. Tiempy y Clima, Abril 2018.

Zorita, E. Creer en el cambio climático. Tiempo y Clima, Octubre 2017.

Zorita, E. Castillo de naipes . Tiempo y Clima, Abril 2017.

Zorita, E. El año de la masacre . Tiempo y Clima, Octubre 2016.

Zorita, E. El nivel del mar. Tiempo y Clima, Abril 2016.

Zorita, E.Advertencia desde California. Tiempo y Clima, Octubre 2015.

Zorita E. Sólos ante el peligro.Tiempo y Clima, 48, Abril 2015.

Zorita E. La detección del cambio climático. Tiempo y Clima, 46, Octubre 2014.

Zorita E. Aceptar la incertidumbre. Tiempo y Clima, 44, Abril 2014.

J. Luterbacher, R. Neukom, F.J. González-Rouco, L. Fernandez-Donado, C.C. Raible and E. Zorita. Reconstructed and simulated Medieval Climate Anomaly in southern South America. Pages Newsletter 19, 20 (2011).

F. J. González-Rouco, L. Fernández-Donado, C.C. Raible, D. Barriopedro, J. Luterbacher, J.H. Jungclaus, D. Swingedouw, J. Servonnat, E. Zorita, S. Wagner and C.M. Ammann. Medieval Climate Anomaly to Little Ice Age transition as simulated by current climate models. Pages Newsletter 19, 7 (2011).

Zorita E. Independent Agency needed. In IPCC: cherish it, tweak it or scrap it ? Nature 463, 731 (2010).

Teaching

I have participated in a few Ph.D Schools:

Regular lecture on Paleoclimate Modelling at the Introductory Course of the SICSS grad school.

Statistical and mathematical tools for the study of climate extremes, organized by Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment (Paris) and held in Institut de Physique de Cargèse (Corsica), November 9th-14th, 2015.

Impact of climate change on the marine environment with special focus on the role of changing extremes co-organized by the Baltic Ecosystem Adaptive Management (BEAM) and Baltic Earth programmes on Askö, Sweden, August 24th-30th, 2015.

"From Climate Reconstructions to Climate Predictions" organized by the National Centre for Climate Research (Switzerland), in Grindelwald, September 1st-6th , 2013.

The Subtropical Frontier, organized by the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, at the Navarino Environmental Observatory (Greece), June 23rd-July 3rd, 2013.

Climate Modelling School within the Baltic projects Ecosupport and Amber, Norrköping, Sweden, October 2010.

Climate Change in the Baltic: From global problems to local adaptation, at the Institute for Baltic Sea Research, Warnemünde, Germany, September 2010.

School on Statistical Analysis in Climate Research, Lecce, Italy, October 2009.

International Advanced PhD Course on Climate Impacts on the Baltic Sea: From Science to Policy, Nexø, Bornholm, Denmark, 27 July - 5 August 2009.

Time Series Analysis and Modelling of Environmental Data, Seili, Finland, September 2009.

Climate Impacts on the Baltic Sea: From Science to Policy, Bornholm, Denmark, August 2009.

Statistical and Dynamical Downscaling, at the International Max-Planck-School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg, Germany, Autumn-Winter 2008-2009.

Proyección regional de escenarios de cambio climático. Técnicas y proyectos en curso. Universidad de Cantabria, Suances, Spain, 25-29 July, 2007.

Summer School on Statistical Downscaling, Lodz, Poland, 18-22 June 2007.

Climate prediction, from the past to the future. Universidad del País Vasco, San Sebastian, Spain, 21 - 25 August 2006.

Videos

The climate over the past 2000 years. Baltic Earth Summer School, Askö, 2016.

Wildfires, climate and humans: a complex triangle. Helmholtz Horizons, 2019.

The European 2022 summer: context and predictability. CLINT Project, kickoff-meeting, 2022.

Aplicación de la Intelegencia Artificial a la Climatolog´. Aula Morán, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología, 2023.

Former positions

1994-1995. Laboratoire d'Oceanographie Dynamique et de Climatologie, Paris: Climatological observations seem to indicate that at middle and high latitudes there exist climate oscillations with periods of several decades. The origin of these oscillations may lie in the internal dynamics of the climate system, especially in the coupled interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean. However, the available observations do not allow for a clear identification of the physical mechanism that may give rise to those oscillations. The analysis of long-integrations of coupled atmosphere-ocean models may give clues about the real mechanism that are operating in nature. Since the amount of data generated in this integration is enormous, sophisticated statistical techniques to identify oscillations such data sets have been used, such as Singular Spectrum Analysis and Principal Oscillation Patterns.

1989-1993, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg: Possible climate change is currently estimated with numerical models that simulate the present and the future earth climate. Their skilful resolution is nowadays of the order 2000 Km and therefore they cannot properly the local and regional features that are important to study the impact of climate change on the environment. One way to overcome this scale mismatch is statistical downscaling techniques: A statistical transfer function is estimated by analysing observations of the large-scale circulation and the regional climate. This transfer function can be used to translate the changes of the atmospheric circulation simulated by a climate model to changes of the regional climate. The transfer functions may be designed by means of multivariate linear techniques, such as canonical correlation, or by nonlinear techniques, such as analogue methods, classification methods or neural networks.

1984-1988, University of Zaragoza, Spain. Ph.D. Thesis: Ionic crystals are normally transparent to visible light. However the presence of metallic impurities or lattice point defects may change the optical properties of these crystals by inducing absortion and emission bands in the visible and infra-red spectrum. These crystals may then be used, for instance, as active laser materials. Since the optical and magnetic properties of these impurities and point defects are very sensitive to their microscopic environment, these properties can also provide valuable information of their local crystalline structure and about structural phase transitions in the host lattice. With magnetic resonance techniques it is possible to estimate with high accuracy the bonding angles of the impurity and its neighbouring ions. Sometimes the distances between them can also be estimated, thus providing a full three-dimensional picture of the distorted lattice surrounding the impurity.

Contact

Eduardo Zorita
Institute of Coastal Systems Analysis and Modelling
Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon
Max-Planck-Str. 1
D-21502 Geesthacht
Germany

Tel:   +49 4152 87 1856
Fax: +49 4152 87 41856


ORCID: 0000-0002-7264-5743

name.surname at hereon dot de
name.surname at gmx dot de

web site at HZG